Having just had a paper published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, I thought I’d take some time to ruminate on the dangers of predictive modelling. Why is it so fraught with risk? Can we qualify our predictions enough? And what sort of impact can poor predictions have on conservation efforts?
Forecasting the Fate of an Ecosystem: The Double-Edged Sword of Predictive Modelling — Ecology for the Masses
The Roost 